CYBERTERRORISM; HOW SERIOUS IS THE THREAT?
...can be exploited to support political agendas ranging from stronger surveillance authority to tighter immigration controls. Cyber-terrorism can be defined in two forms: one attacks against data, and the other on control systems. The first type attempts to steal or corrupt data and deny services. The vast majority of Internet and other computer attacks have fallen into this category, such as credit-card number theft, Web site vandalism and the occasional major denial-of-service attack. Control-system attacks attempt to disable or take power over operations used to maintain physical infrastructure, such as "distributed control systems" that regulate water supplies, electrical transmission networks and railroads. While remote access to many control systems have previously required an attacker to dial in with a modem, these operations are increasingly using the Internet to transmit data or are connected to a company's local network, a system protected with firewalls that, in some cases, could be penetrated. Most security officials agree that any damage resulting from an illegal cyber intrusion would be measured in loss of data, not life. It would be harder to kill people or have a lasting effect using cyber-attacks. It is true, however, that data attacks could have severe consequences without causing deaths. Many power companies and water utilities are operated with networks of computer-controlled devices, known as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems, which can and have been hacked. SCADA systems could be attacked by overloading a system that, upon failure, causes other operations to malfunction as well, said John Dubiel, a Gartner consultant who worked on the electrical power attack in last month's war games referenced earlier in my analysis. Such domino effects have already been seen in incidents resulting from natural events. In 2003, the power along much of the Northeast corridor went out for anywhere from a few hours to several days after a tree branch apparently fell on some power lines and, in combination with several other problems, caused a cascading power failure. Is cyber-terrorism the way of the future? For terrorists, it does have some distinct advantages over physical methods. It can be conducted remotely and anonymously, it is relatively inexpensive, and it does not require handling explosives or a suicide mission, and lastly, it would likely garner extensive media coverage, as journalists and the public alike are fascinated by practically any kind of computer attack. It is important to note that there are drawbacks to terrorists using cyber weapons over physical ones. Because computer systems are complex, it may be harder to control an attack and achieve a desired level of damage. Unless people are injured, there is also less drama and emotional appeal. Further, terrorists may be disinclined to try new methods unless they see their old ones as inadequate. In order to fully analyze the threat of cyber- terrorism, an important issue to consider is what groups are likely to utilize cyber-terrorism to further their political and social goals. It is important to identify these groups in order to define the threat and judge the sophistication of the cyber-terrorists. Unfortunately, a cyber terrorist threat could come from countless sources. Individuals, countries, international terrorist groups, domestic groups, and numerous others have the capability to commit cyber terrorism. It has been reported that in 2002 alone, the FBI has conducted more than 10,000 terrorism investigations. In order to get a better understanding of the threat posed by cyber-terrorists, it is important to look at a few terrorist groups and examine their presence on the Internet and the tactics they use to employ cyber-terrorism as well. There are hundreds of sites on the Internet serving terrorist groups and their supporters, according to a study done by the US Institute of Peace (USIP). The study was undertaken by Gabriel Weimann, a professor at the Haifa University in Israel and currently a senior fellow at USIP, writes that today all active terrorist groups have established their presence on the Internet. It is a dynamic phenomenon when web sites suddenly emerge, frequently modify their formats and then swiftly disappear. In many cases, they disappear by changing their online address but retaining much the same content. Terrorist web sites target current and potential supporters, international public opinion and those whom they consider their enemies. There are eight different ways in which today’s terrorists use the Internet, ranging from psychological warfare and propaganda to highly instrumental uses such as fund-raising, recruitment, date mining and coordination of given actions. By its very nature, the Internet is an ideal arena for activity by terrorist organizations since it offers easy access, little or no regulation, censorship or government control, potentially huge audiences around the world, anonymity of communication, fast flow of information, inexpensive development and maintenance of web presence, a multimedia environment and the ability to shape coverage in the traditional mass media which increasingly uses the Internet as a source for news stories. A survey undertaken for the aforementioned study showed that the Internet is used by groups of all description and persuasions, from Marxist to Islamist to racist to anarchist. From the Middle East, the groups that are present on the web include Hamas, the Lebanese Hizbollah, the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, the Fatah Tanzim, the Kahane Lives Movement, the People’s Mujahideen of Iran, the Kurdish Workers’ Party and the Great East Islamic Raiders Front. From Europe, there are the Basque ETA Movement, Armata Corsa (a Corsican group) and the IRA. From Asia, the study found the following groups active, among others: al Qaeda, the Japanese Supreme Truth, the Ansar al Islam in Iraq, the Japanese Red Army, the Hizbul Mujahideen in Kashmir, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front of the Philippines and the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The most notorious, Al Qaeda, combines multimedia propaganda and advanced communication technologies to create a very sophisticated form of psychological warfare. Osama Bin Laden and his followers concentrate their propaganda efforts on the Internet, where visitors to al Qaeda’s numerous web sites and to the sites of sympathetic, aboveground organizations can access prerecorded videotapes, CD-ROMs, DVDs, photographs, and announcements. Despite the massive onslaught al Qaeda has sustained in recent years, it has been able to conduct an “impressive scare campaign.” Since September 11th, al Qaeda has decorated its web sites with a string of announcements of an impending “large attack” on US targets. It has consistently claimed on its web sites that the destruction of the World Trade Center has inflicted psychological damage, as well as concrete damage, on the US economy. Parallels are drawn with the decline and ultimate demise of the Soviet Union. One of Osama bin Laden’s recent publications posted on the web declared, “America is in retreat by the Grace of Almighty and economic attrition is continuing up to today, but it needs further blows. The young men need to seek out the nodes of the American economy and strike the enemy’s nodes.” The Sunni terrorist group Hizb al-Tahrir (which has a formal presence in Pakistan) uses an integrated web of Internet sites, stretching from Europe to Africa, which asks supporters to assist the effort by giving money and encouraging others to donate to the cause of jihad. Banking information, including the numbers of accounts into which donations can be deposited, is provided on a site based in Germany. The fighters in Chechnya have also used the Internet to publicize the numbers of bank accounts to which sympathizers can contribute. One of the bank accounts is located in Sacramento, California. The IRA accepts credit card donations. The aforementioned study found that many terrorist groups, including al Qaeda, have undergone a transformation from strictly hierarchical organizations and designated leaders to affiliations of semi-independent cells that have no single commanding hierarchy. Through the use of the Internet, these loosely interconnected groups are able to maintain contact with one another, and with members of other groups. In the future, terrorists are increasingly likely to be organized in a more decentralized manner, enabling dispersed organizational actors to communicate swiftly and to coordinate effectively. Dozens of sites exist that express support for terrorism conducted in the name of jihad. These sites and related forums permit terrorists in places such as Chechnya, Palestine, Afghanistan, Turkey, Iraq, Malaysia and the Philippines to exchange not on...