The Impact of Avian Flu in Asia on business
...poultry and poultry meat, especially on the meat chicken import, which used to rank highest in foreign exchange earning in our poultry export. Tourism------crisis appears Increasingly expended avian flu has stricken several countries¡¯ tourism. Fearing that virus may mutate to the point where it can be transmitted between humans, plus the tragic fact that the disease is air-borne and therefore highly communicable, people began to cancel holidays of visiting certain destinations and choose to stay at home. In Asian countries, tourism accounts for an average of 4% in GDP. The increase of GDP in country would surely be slower as the revenue from tourism decline. In fact, Indonesia, Philippine, and Rumania in which avian flu cases are reported is already going through a decline of the number of tourist. To combat the looming threat of an avian flu epidemic and to prevent a repeat of the SARS scare of 2003, World Tourism Organization released a warning announcement, in which they urged governments to monitor developments on avian flu very carefully and refrain from any reporting that creates unnecessary panic. Indeed, unnecessary scaremongering can cause a sharp drop in tourism that squeezes the economies. Should the flu spread, we are likely to see empty hotels, deserted airports, and closed restaurants and our economy would be forced to carry the burden. Fear, panic------more horrible than avian flu Most immediate economic impacts of bird flu arise not from death but from panic. More than the actual damages to livelihood and health security, it is the psychological impact of a possible bird flu outbreak that threatens to cut countries¡¯ GDP. Citing Asia's experience during the outbreak of the SARS, as the fear become severe, the economies that would be hit by an epidemic may grind to a halt, as people try to avoid infection by minimizing face-to-face interactions, resulting in a severe demand shock for services sectors such as tourism, mass transportation, retail sales, hotels and restaurants. It also may result that the outbreak could cut into productivity, as employees would refuse to go to work, for fear of contracting the disease, which may force businesses to shift to more costly procedures. World Bank noted in its report on the Avian flu that "the most immediate economic impacts of a pandemic might arise not from actual death or sickness but from the uncoordinated efforts of private individuals to avoid becoming infected." The costs arising from panic and disruption may be magnified by an initial lack of public information, contributing to a large over-estimation by individuals of the perceived probabilities of infection and death, as experienced during the SARS outbreak in some Asian countries. However, in China¡¯s case, the avian flu¡¯s negative psychological impact on economic may be more optimistic than SARS¡¯ in 2003. Disguise of the epidemic situation at the initial stage, lack of medical contingency plans for crisis, and insufficient international cooperation, make SARS the origin of society panic, which is more frightful then the virus itself. But now, the avian flu is facing an internationally cooperated, information-transparent, and efficient environment. That makes the possibility of successfully conquering avian flu is increasing. The public and markets often feel panic in the face of uncertainty. To state out the rational analysis of the possible negative impact can reduce the panic caused from insufficient information. Therefore, it is important for governments to enforce an honest, transparent public information policy an...