Why the Dalai Lama will not return to Tibet

There has been much speculation as to whether the Dalai Lama will be returning to Tibet. The Dalai Lama’s return to Tibet would have major political implications for China. ... A brief review of recent Tibetan history is essential to understanding the Dalai Lama’s wish to return to Tibet, and China’s hesitant attitude to his return. The Dalai Lama is the traditional head of state and spiritual leader of the Tibetan people. Tibet, however, is under Chinese control. For the first half of the 20th century Tibet enjoyed semi-independence. ... In 1950 China invaded Tibet and in 1959, the Tibetan government was abolished and the Chinese “set about reordering Tibetan society in accordance with their Marxist principles.” The Dalai Lama was forced to flee Tibet 45 years ago after a failed uprising against China. The Dalai Lama has since been leading the Tibetan government in exile in Northern India. The Dalai Lama has stated that he is “willing to return to Tibet and end nearly half a century of exile in India, if China allows him to back to his homeland ‘without preconditions. ... ” The Dalai Lama’s return to Chinese controlled Tibet will not be so easy. The current 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso is believed to be the reincarnation of his predecessor the 13th Dalai Lama, and an incarnation of Avalokitesvara, the Buddha of Compassion. Under Chinese authority the mere possession of a photograph of the Dalai Lama is illegal. ... In private they show pictures of the Dalai Lama and joyously anticipate his return. The Dalai Lama is also an internationally renowned figure; he frequently meets with heads of states around the world, attends and speaks at many international conferences, and has received countless awards, including the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989. He is a soft-spoken individual with the means necessary to have his views heard worldwide, if not necessarily carried out. He often uses his abilities to speak out against the Chinese government while concurrently giving hope to those in Tibet under Chinese rule. In his speech upon receiving the Nobel Prize the Dalai Lama said the following. I accept it on behalf of the six million Tibetan people, my brave countrymen and women inside Tibet, who have suffered and continue to suffer so much. ... The prize reaffirms our conviction that with truth, courage and determination as our weapons, Tibet will be liberated… In China the popular movement for democracy was crushed by brutal force in June this year [Tianeman Square]. But I do not believe the demonstrations were in vain… The brave students and their supporters showed the Chinese leadership and the world the human face of that great nation. Why then would Chinese wish to let such a man back inside their borders? ... From a realist’s point of view the Dalai Lama should never be allowed to return to China. The Dalai Lama, however, could be of some help to China. ... “’Our position is not seeking independence for Tibet, but genuine autonomy, which the Chinese constitution mentions.’” The return of the Dalai Lama would please both the Tibetans and the international community. ... Having the Dalai Lama return to reside inside its own borders would also affirm China’s legitimacy. After all, the Tibetan disaster has had many implications outside China’s borders, “Moderate Chinese officials acknowledge that Tibet is a public relations disaster abroad for the Chinese government.” Coming to an agreement with the Dalai Lama, after such a long history of conflict would demonstrate the Chinese government’s increasing tolerance.

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