2004 presidental election prediction
... to the tune of $904 thousand, (cnn.com) current and trending polls still give the president a 5-7% victory.(rasmussenreports.com) This state once thought to be up for grabs, after President Bush supported the recommendation proposed by Department of Energy, to use Nevada’s Yucca mountains as nuclear waste depository, will continue to be solid Bush supporters. Iowa, a state who’s electorate is largely composed of white farmers, will vote for Bush in the upcoming election, aside from poling evidence to support this, Iowa’s farmers will stick with Bush although they voted against him in 2000, because Bush has aligned himself with the White, Midwestern, Christian. Although healthcare is a major concern in this area, I believe it will be offset by the proposed establishment of a fixed ethanol (a corn based gasoline derivative) content in US gasoline, under the Bush administration this proposal would increased profits for farmers. Although Hawaii has been traditionally a democratic state I am predicting this election Hawaii will back Bush. This may seem odd since the democrats have controlled Hawaii’s government solidly for the last 40 years, but that all changed in 2002 when governor Linda Lingle a republican was elected.(washingtonpost.com) This change of pace for Hawaii, as well as the prospect of a gay marriage ban projects a more conservative attitude, this shift in attitude and a trending effect shown in the last two months of polling which ultimately gives Bush a slight advantage, is why I allocated Hawaii’s 4 electoral votes to Bush. (wsh.com) Possibly the closest of all state races this year will go to Florida. Both candidates put forth massive campaigns aimed at taking Florida’s twenty seven electoral votes, a massive television add campaign costing nearly $13.5 million, over ¼ of the entire add expenses for both parties were in the Florida.(cnn.com) This massive television campaign containing almost 11,000 political advertisements, paired with each candidate spending over two weeks time in the state campaigning makes this state a toss up in most polls. I believe that President Bush really made a comeback in Florida after the last few hurricanes that took place. President Bush declared parts of Florida a natural disaster and allocated massive amounts of money in Federal Aid to rebuild, that move alone, swayed many voters and this will ultimately give Bush the state. Although Senator Kerry will loose Iowa and New Hampshire, states previously carried by Gore, he will gain Ohio and New Mexico and ultimately more Electoral College votes. I believe that senator Kerry’s core states will include California, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D.C, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington. This although fewer number of states, will provide him with 179 base electoral votes. Senator Kerry will add to that 179 electoral core by picking up Ohio in a very close race. Kerry backed by a massive add campaign, where he and his supporters outspend Bush by nearly a million dollars, and the fact that Senator Kerry has logged 22 visits to the Buckeye state to Bushes 16 visits, will definatly have an effect. (cnn.com) Putting the logistical and monetary advantages aside I believe Kerry still would have taken Ohio, because reports show that under the Bush administration Ohio has lost approximately 265,000 jobs, the bulk in manufacturing. (wsj.com) This fact alone pits a lot of opposition to the Incumbent. According to recent polls the president is still ahead in Ohio but not beyond the margin of error,(rasmussenreports.com) I believe that Kerry’s influx of spending in the last two weeks totaling $2.3 million will sway the Ohio vote in his favor.(cnn.com) New Mexico, will be an upset for Bush as he has enjoyed a moderate lead for the past several weeks. (wsj.com) Kerry will keep New Mexico as Democratic presidential supporters, I believe this for the simple fact that he will draw from the Hispanic vote. He will accomplish this because it was highly rumored that Bill Richardson (the current governor of New Mexico) would be tapped as a running mate for both Gore and Kerry. (salon.com) That along with Kerry’s promised “earned citizenship” proposal will and his ability again to outspend Bush on advertising by 159%, will defiantly sway New Mexico on the back the Hispanic vote to Kerry’s side. (cnn.com) Michigan, like Ohio will vote Kerry due to loss of manufacturing jobs in their major industries. Since Bush took office in 2001, Michigan’s unemployment rate has risen 3.3% to near %7, this mainly due to layoffs in the automotive industry, a staple of Michigan’s economy. (wsj.com) Polls have trended since May in favor of President Bush but never beyond the margin of error, which leaves this state seemingly a coin flip, this opportunity to pick up 17 electoral votes has led democrats to spend nearly $1.1 million to Bush’s $700 thousand in commercial airtime, with 98% of these funds being spent since October 21. (cnn.com) You can conclude that the vote of the people of Michigan in the end will show the loss of jobs and ultimately a win for Kerry. Minnesota will stay democratic supporters although Bush and Kerry have been essentially deadlocked each with 47% of likely voters. (rasmussenreports.com) I believe that Minnesota will vote Kerry not from the values of himself but possibly because of the displayed values of his wife. Teresa Heinz Kerry, may hold the key to a victory in Minnesota, as it has traditionally had great concern with the environment, due to its large agriculture based electorate. Mrs. Heinz Kerry is widely known for her contributions to preserve the environment through the Heinz foundation as well as other personal works. (johnkerry.com) Mrs. Heinz Kerry’s record along with Kerry outspending Bush by an amazing 222%, (cnn.com) and Minnesota’s floundering economic activity, will surely give Minnesota’s ten electoral votes to the Democrat. New Hampshire and its underlying liberal electorate will defiantly choose Kerry in 2004. At first I believed that this may be the one state where the “Nader Factor” may come into play, yet after reviewing poll results giving Senator Kerry a consistent 3 and 4 point lead over Bush I see no such effect. (wsj.com) I believe that Kerry will win solely because of the 2000 election and how close it was and how there was a Nadar effect. New Hampshire is known for its liberal electorate and I do not foresee them voting for a conservative president repeatedly. Pennsylvania, whom until recently was apparently democratic supporters will not be c...